THE ROIC curve framework

https://fr.scribd.com/document/311495118/Guggenheim-ROIC

meaningfull VC exit

https://medium.com/jme-venture-capital/meaningful-vc-exits-2bb5702776e2#.f1zw5wlur

frmo notes on bitcoin

http://www.frmocorp.com/_content/letters/2016_FRMO_Transcript.pdf

Why fewer companies are going public

The Bad Side of a Good Idea Why fewer companies are going public, why it’s a problem, and what we can do about it.

http://www.collaborativefund.com/uploads/Collab%20Bad%20Side%20of%20a%20Good%20Idea2.pdf

The Formula for Valuing All Assets

Using precise numbers is, in fact, foolish; working with a range of possibilities is the better approach.” 

―Warren Buffett

https://hurricanecapital.wordpress.com/2016/12/02/the-formula-for-valuing-all-assets/

warren buffet answer 20 questions

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/11/warren-buffetts-meeting-university-maryland-mbams-students-november-18-2016/?all=1

interesting parts :

If you know who someone’s heroes are, then you will know how they will turn out

The most important skill in finance is salesmanship.  That’s how you convince someone to marry you and that’s how you get a job. The most important quality to do well is temperament which would permit the control of fear and greed which have ruined many.  Anyone who has become rich twice is dumb.  Why would you risk what you need and have for what you don’t need?  If you are already rich, there is no upside to taking on a lot more risk, but there is disgrace on the downside.

how to pick a friend:

Choose someone (among your friends and classmates) whom you would want 10% of their future earnings.  Someone who is generous with a good sense of humor and you would want to be led by them.

mauboussin on international capital allocation

https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=em&document_id=1066773661&serialid=b4kPQeTQAweL03oMAgHnarQ6mWCC5xXymWY9Q9gXQlI%3d

charlie munger & nassim taleb on doing what you love

"I've never taken notes. I never kept notes when I was a student. I just read what I please when I feel like reading it, and I think what I think when I feel like thinking it. And that's my system. I don't think it's the right system for everybody, but it seems to have worked well enough for me to enable me to get by."

- charlie munger

“The minute I was bored with a book or a subject I moved to another one, instead of giving up on reading altogether - when you are limited to the school material and you get bored, you have a tendency to give up and do nothing or play hooky out of discouragement.

The trick is to be bored with a specific book, rather than with the act of reading. So the number of the pages absorbed could grow faster than otherwise. And you find gold, so to speak, effortlessly, just as in rational but undirected trial-and-error-based research. It is exactly like options, trial and error, not getting stuck, bifurcating when necessary but keeping a sense of broad freedom and opportunism.

Trial and error is freedom.”

-Nassim taleb

dont confuse cheap with value

http://www.broyhillasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.10-BAM-Dont-Confuse-Cheap-with-Value-Final.pdf

Netflix new business model

Keep in mind Netflix doesn't need every person to watch all their programming. All they have to do is produce enough diverse content to retain their subscriber base. For example, let's say you like superhero-type shows. All they have to do is produce four or five shows, 40-50 hours of original programming a year, and that will probably be enough to keep you subscribing. Somebody else will be content with 50 hours of romance, someone else with 50 hours of documentaries. A thousand hour war chest is enough to persuade millions that Netflix is a must-subscribe item for commercial free content they can't get anywhere else. 

Compare that to tv where every show needs to gather an audience large enough for advertisers ...

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Tim cook = steve ballmer

https://steveblank.com/2016/10/24/why-tim-cook-is-steve-ballmer-and-why-he-still-has-his-job-at-apple/

they kill trial & error = no creativity

John Landgraf on peak tv

http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/fxs-john-landgraf-netflixs-massive-programming-output-has-pushed-peak-tv-1201833825/

netflix original content production

Son on iot & buying arm

http://contrarianedge.com/2016/09/09/softbank-ceo-masayoshi-son-banks-exponential-growth/

Son believes we are at the inflection point when the Internet of Things (IoT) market is about to enter the exponential growth phase. There are 7 billion people in the world today. In 2015, ARM sold 15 billion processors — about 2 processors per person. By 2020, ARM expects to sell 75 billion processors a year — a fivefold increase.

nassim taleb on ed thorpe

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Foreword%20Thorp.pdf

Startup checklist

https://blog.ladder.io/business-idea/

Jonh Maynard Keynes chairman letter

https://www.docdroid.net/kEKYMNm/john-maynard-keynes-chairman-letters-1921-1937.pdf.html

Warren buffet on pension assumption

http://www.utstat.utoronto.ca/sharp/Files/Press%20articles%20and%20other%20stuff%202008/Buffett/Buffett%202008%20details%20on%20inv%20returns%20v01.pdf

THe secret to Pe return

The secret to P/E return pays less then 7X on small cap

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2016/08/29/young-hedge-fund-manager-cracks-the-private-equity-code-small-stocks-and-leverage/3/#380c87db888f

How fake money stopped inflation

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-fake-money-saved-brazil

The ltv formula

http://abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the-dangerous-seduction-of-the-lifetime-value-ltv-formula/

80% of day trader lose money

http://www.curiousgnu.com/day-trading

great article on fullfillment by amazon

http://www.arbing.co.uk/amazon-fba-business/?post=awesome

Take a simple idea, and take it seriously. Sol and the rise of costco

https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/06/sol-price-customer-best-friend/

Capital & reits

http://www.chiltoncapital.com/assets/reit-outlook---june-2016---final2.pdf

Good advice are worth a shitload of $ bad advice : 0

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/06/02/marc-andreesen-has-two-words-for-you/

Internet trend 2016 -Mary meeker

http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11826256/mary-meeker-2016-internet-trends-report

A good write-up of chanos on enron; lessons that applied to valeant 10 years later

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB114894232503965715

Jim collins interview Jorge Paulo Lemann

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54LX6SgRLhs

a billion price can't be wrong, a new look at inflation

http://timharford.com/2016/05/a-billion-prices-cant-be-wrong/

Another great Howard marks memo

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/economic-reality.pdf

transcript of buffet testimony on moodys post 2008

http://vintagevalueinvesting.com/a-unique-behind-the-scenes-look-into-warren-buffetts-investment-process/

Do manager eat their own cooking

http://www.morningstar.com/products/pdf/MFIMWEOC0608.pdf

Benjamin Graham letters to shareholder

http://www.rbcpa.com/benjamin_graham/Graham-Newman_letters.html

Article on car maintenance spending

http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-3/pdf/americans-aging-autos.pdf

Valuation the enduring power of a big idea

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21695940-enduring-power-biggest-idea-business-analyse

Profile of a great investor

http://microcapclub.com/2016/04/best-microcap-investor-youve-never-heard/

buffet on lessons for systematic value investors

http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2016/05/04/does-buffett-have-lessons-for-systematic-value-investors/#gs.gJf20s8

the world will only get weirder, the downside of rules

http://stevecoast.com/2015/03/27/the-world-will-only-get-weirder/

ask the 5 why's
rules can cover 80% of case but not tail event thus we're left with tail event

great interview with walter and edwin scloss

http://basehitinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Walter-Schloss-OID-Interview.pdf

Billions in change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0

Environnementalism 2.0

http://www.adamdorr.com/essays/environmentalism-and-technological-denialism/

16 ceo letter that stood out

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/04/01/16-favorite-annual-letters-from-an-investor-whos-read-more-than-1000/

how maritime insurance built ancient rome

http://priceonomics.com/how-maritime-insurance-built-ancient-rome/

John Malone: ‘Cable Cowboy’ Faces the Test in Rounding Up the Right Mix of Assets

http://variety.com/2016/tv/features/john-malone-liberty-media-charter-communications-1201729414/?curator=MediaREDEF

stock you should not own

http://osam.com/pdf/Commentary_StocksYouShouldntOwn_Jan-2016.pdf

outperforming by avoiding the low quality stuff

why low oil price are good for the american economy

https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/301250188?access_key=key-BT8y8UPDxzfvJSRxIC7n&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll
warrend buffet interview page 8
the reason the pain is felt is that capital value disapear faster then the low price dividend

we don't pay enough for tranportation

https://transportationist.org/2014/08/04/we-dont-pay-enough-for-transportation/

a good exemple of society at large failing to consider the opportunity cost

outerwall buybacks and activists

http://basehitinvesting.com/outerwall-buybacks-and-activists/

How to calculate roic

https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=csplusresearchcp&document_id=806230540&serialid=C0owv4XbV7zL%2BTQLggWqjPthH7IUpSwUZpiIwdvDgtA%3D

investing on the ceo emotions

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2016/02/17/software-detects-ceo-emotions-predicts-financial-performance/?mod=trending_now_5

safal niveshak on switching cost

http://www.safalniveshak.com/latticework-of-mental-models-switching-costs/

Elon Musk on Regulators

https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/02/elon-musk-regulators/

There is a fundamental problem with regulators. If a regulator agrees to change a rule and something bad happens, they can easily lose their career. Whereas if they change a rule and something good happens, they don’t even get a reward. So, it’s very asymmetric. It’s then very easy to understand why regulators resist changing the rules. It’s because there’s a big punishment on one side and no reward on the other. How would any rational person behave in such a scenario?

As Keynes said: “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”

the best stock over the last 30 years and you've never heard of it

http://www.jasonzweig.com/the-best-stock-over-the-last-30-years-youve-never-heard-of-it/

bystander effect

http://www.safalniveshak.com/latticework-of-mental-models-the-bystander-effect/

S&p 500 correction since 2010

http://www.peridotcapital.com/2016/01/keeping-perspective-sp-500-corrections-since-2010.html

buffet net worth by age

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaAUooKWkAIPrKD.jpg:large

a great presentation on platform 2.0

http://designs.valueinvestorinsight.com/bonus/pdf/Conglomerate_Boom.pdf

Mark cuban on the lack of IPo killing the us economy

This market is DYING for growth companies. There are so few growth stories that companies with 250 BILLION dollar market caps are looked at as growth companies.

google embrace paid inclusion

http://marketingland.com/once-deemed-evil-google-now-embraces-paid-inclusion-13138

ackman on index funds

http://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/2014/09/Pershing-Square-2015-Annual-Letter-PSH-January-26-2016.pdfbill ackman on index fund
The problem of asset flows without regard to valuation is compounded by the fact that the most popular indexes are market-cap weighted. This means that the larger the market cap of the company, the larger its representation in the index. In other words, as the stock price rises, its weighting in the index increases, and the index fund is required to buy more of the company. While value investors typically buy more as stock prices decline (assuming intrinsic value has also not declined), market-cap weighted index funds do the opposite. They are inherently momentum investors, forced to buy more as stock prices rise, magnifying the risk of overvaluation of the index components.

what does the market know ,.. not much

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/what-does-the-market-know.pdf

free shipping from china

http://romain.goyet.com/articles/free_shipping_from_china/

why big companies keep failing

http://techcrunch.com/2016/01/18/why-big-companies-keep-failing-the-stack-fallacy/

howard mark memo : on the couch

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/on-the-couch.pdf

interesting facts
1)the effect of a slowdown in china is almost negligible to the us account for less then 1% of s&p 500 profit and export to china = less then 1% of gdp

2) the low oil price amount to the equivalent of a reduction in taxes of 100's of billions
    fear of lower car sale due to higher interest when the cost to drive oil is going down are unwarranted

3) psychological contagion : last week most stock exchange we're down approximately 7% even if the global event should have totally different repercussion on them

the simplest definition of a moat

If your competitors know your secret and yet still can't copy it, that is a structural advantage.

The capitalism distribution

http://www.theivyportfolio.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/thecapitalismdistribution.pdf

Observations of individual common stock returns, 1983 - 2007

Sanjay bakshi on buying and selling

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/05/value-investing-genius-sanjay-bakshi-when-you-shou.aspx

The biography of the former Ceo of Nucor

https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/01/ken-iverson-nucor/

Edge org most important scientific discovery of 2015

http://edge.org/contributors/what-do-you-consider-the-most-interesting-recent-scientific-news-what-makes-it

interesting one on antibiotics : http://edge.org/response-detail/26701
& on mating : http://edge.org/response-detail/26747

Cognitive concept toolkit

http://mcntyr.com/52-concepts-cognitive-toolkit/